Alright, I've decided that this week my numbers are all screwy... so it's intuition only and a much smaller base of playing. Guarantee you that next week is going to be a huge card because these lines will be all over the place because of teams having squat to play for. I'm leaving town tomorrow morning and won't return until Monday afternoon, so my hope is that the lines don't get released until Tuesday... but if they do come out early, I don't think it's gonna matter, because I just have this feeling that there will be PLENTY of good pickings...
But for this week...
Chicago (-11.5) vs. Grand Rapids (4 units -109): Simply put: Chicago got embarassed last week and needs to win this one to stand any chance of winning the division or winning a wild card. Grand Rapids sucks... even if they did just beat Colorado a couple weeks back. Grand Rapids won't cover this one on the road, just like they've had all sorts of road troubles this year.
San Jose (-4.5) @ Arizona (3 units -101): Basically the same spot. This line is so low because of the fact that this is a rivalry game. It wouldn't surprise me to see Arizona upset the Kitties, but San Jose knows if they don't turn it on now, they might be done... And that's a REAL scary proposition for the defending champs, who marched into Arizona last year for the Arena Bowl and killed Arizona... This Arizona team is a shell of its old self and I think the Saberkitties will give a statement to Colorado or whomever it is they play in the first round of the playoffs...
Nashville (ml) @ Colorado (1 unit +230) This is the time of year that the real big upsets occur in the big games... Colorado needs this one. Nashville needs it more. I like the way this team is playing and think that they are the... *gasp*... BETTER TEAM in this game.... I'll take my shots that the Kats keep it rolling in the biggest game of the year for them at over 3-1. Colorado's dropped significantly since the outset and makes me really pissed that I have a futures bet on them to win the Arena Bowl...
Dallas (ml) @ Georgia (1 unit +209): Georgia's won their games already. They know that any combo between their wins and New York's losses in the next 2 weeks is enough for the 1 seed. Dallas knows loss and go home. I hate this Dallas team, but they match up very well against Georgia and Orlando, who play basically the same style. Again, in a "must-win" vs. a "not necessary," I'll take the team at over 3-1, even though I will be rooting real hard against it to get my Preds in the playoffs...
New Orleans (-6.5) vs. Austin (3 units -108) Voodoo need this one going into the Jungle next week... We already have a futures on the Voodoo winning this game, because a Voodoo win and we get our money back if they lose to Orlando (which we'll need to get Orlando over 9.5 wins). New Orleans knows remembers they were beaten by this team in Austin just a few weeks ago, but we also saw Austin's best effort possible against Orlando. This New Orleans team is much better than THAT Orlando team was, and the game is in the Graveyard, where the Voodoo don't lose (especially after losing last week... lol). New Orleans has now lost 5 games at home in two seasons... Two to Orlando and two to Colorado... oh, and Georgia... Austin won't be added to that list... not even close. New Orleans knows EXACTLY what John Fitzgerald is doing, and I look for him to have an unfortunate injury due to the Voodoo pass rush, as they HATED him in New Orleans....
Las Vegas (ml) @ Los Angeles (1 unit +160): Give me the better team and the 2.60-1... I'm still not sold on LA even though they've beaten San Jose twice. These guys have lost some bad bad games this year, and I really don't think they're gonna win the division. Vegas knows a win and a San Jose loss and they're in the driver's seat for the division title. Too much riding on this game for both teams, but Vegas is fighting for their life. LA is fighting for their seed.
Tampa (-6) vs. New York (3 units +121): I think we look back at this and laugh really hard when the day is done Sunday.... Tampa has EVERYTHING to play for and have already beaten everyone in the South and San Jose at home this season. They just don't lose there. New York will have absolutely zero to play for if Georgia wins and Dallas loses, both very probable. I think this is about where this line SHOULD be, and I'd be all over the Storm at that. Marcum is too big to have his team miss out on the playoffs, and with Columbus looming, this one will be a nice stepping stone for the Storm to make a playoff push.
Nashville/Colorado under 105.5 (2 units -104): 105.5 in a Nashville game? Pulease.... Nashville won't let Colorado get to 55 and they ain't scoring 55... A game in the 80s won't surprise me in the least. Colorado's hurry up isn't working against Nashville. Remember last time these teams played? 40-32 Colorado... Nashville's gonna give them a game and they're gonna do it on defense.
San Jose/Arizona under 108.5 (2 units -104): Arizona's had problems scoring all season, though Bonner looks like he's got the troops firing again. San Jose's offense can be unstoppable at times, but at others, like against LA, they just look putred. The first time these two played, I believe the game was in the 80s, and I look for something in the low 90s again, especially if Arizona keeps it within a TD for a good period of time.
Philadelphia/Columbus under 106 (3 units -106): Ach, I'm playing under in a Philly game... This disgusts me.... a lot.... But Columbus shouldn't be involved in a 106 game. Their defense has been solid this season very quietly, and I think a couple stops on Graziani isn't out of the question, especially the way they play offense... you know, incomplete, complete for a first down, incomplete, incomplete, incomplete, missed FG... 4 minutes, 0 points... lol
Best of luck. Be back Monday.
--AFLGuru:toast: